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Keyword Research as a Predictor of Sales

January 28, 2008

Erik Dafforn

Here's a short but important note about relying on keyword demand to predict general industry sales trends or successes.

Sometimes, keyword demand is a fairly accurate reflector (or predictor) of interest and/or sales:

Search demand for Wii, Xbox, PS2 and PS3 in 2007

Stats: According to this game industry blog, here are the respective console sales for 2007:
Wii: 6.29M units
Xbox: 4.29M units
PS2: 3.97M units
PS3: 2.56M units

And sometimes it is not:

gt-hddvd-v-bluray-2007.jpg

While this chart might correspond roughly to the sales of player units (578,000 HD DVD and 370,000 Blu-ray machines will be sold by the end of [2007]"), one would be advised against picking a format "winner" from this chart (see this or many other articles like it). Most of the technorati (small "t") realize that a PS3 console also comes with a built-in Blu-ray player, so those searching for [blu-ray] are only a fraction of those searching for Blu-ray. If that makes sense.

Disc sales tell a story different from the sales of hardware units. PC World says "Blu-ray Disc movie titles outsold HD DVD in the United States by a nearly 2-to1 margin last year, according to sales figures from Home Media Research."

Using trending charts to estimate sheer search volume is a pretty sure bet. But be careful about drawing conclusions about popularity and intent out of those raw numbers.

All posts by Erik Dafforn
posted by Erik Dafforn at January 28, 2008 12:00 PM
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