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SES: Updates
August 08, 2005
I attended sessions mostly about numbers: User behavior (Enquiro spoke, with lots of followup details) and SE market shares (Google is twice as big as Yahoo. Yahoo is losing mkt share. MSN is slowly deflating. AOL is in a death spiral. Sell your AOL stock.)
The Future: Local advertising is 20% ($100B) of the US $500B ad mkt, yet only online local ads are only $4B. Lots of opportunity, esp. at the cost of Yellow Pages, newspapers, and radio. Instead of global SEO/PPC, we may see more specific SEO/PPC.
More Future: Microsoft Vista Longhorn (the next MS OS). Coming in maybe (maybe) a year. Remember the Netscape Browser Wars? (Which incidentally, started ten years ago today, Aug. 8th, 1995, when NS IPOed.) MS killed NS by embedding the IE browser into the OS, so everything in the OS became webified. Here we go again. MS will attack Google by adding search to everything in the OS. Yahoo gets 73% of its SE traffic from its portal (in other words, people start at the Yahoo site, and from there, go to Yahoo Search). MSN gets 61% of its traffic from its portal. Thus if MS adds MS Search to the OS, they could get a substantial default user stream.
The main SEs have flattened in growth; they see future growth in various specialized, vertical, local, and personalized search tools. So we'll see an explosion of such tools (such as housingmaps.com, etc.) This means mkt fragmentation.
I have more notes; I'll write those up later.
All posts by Brett Lane
posted by Brett Lane at August 8, 2005 07:59 PM
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